The Capital-Freeze Index: Mengukur Kerentanan Indonesia


Tampaknya daya tahan Indonesia menghadapi gejolak eksternal kian terkikis. Majalah terkemuka di dunia, The Economist, menghitung derajat kerentanan dengan menggunakan tiga indikator: kondisi akun semasa (current account), rata-rata pertumbuhan kredit selama tiga tahun terakhir, dan nisbah utang luar negeri (utang kotor jangka pendek plus pembayaran cicilan utang luar negeri) terhadap cadangan devisa.

Pada tahun 20014 posisi Indonesia hanya lebih baik dari Venezuela, Turki, dan Ukraina. Indek total Indonesia sebesar 160, yang berarti lebih separuh dari tingkat tertinggi sebesar 300.

 aeconomist

Namun, jika dimutakhirkan sampai semester I 2015 (Indonesia-2015),  indeks Indonesia turun cukup tajam menjadi 115, sehingga tidak sampai separuh dari indeks tertinggi. Posisi Indonesia menjadi lebih baik dari negara-negara Amerika Latin (Meksiko, Brazil, dan Argentina) serta Rusia.

Negara-negara ASEAN, China, dan India lebih baik dari Indonesia.

Semoga saja tingkat kerentanan Indonesia tidak merosot. Cukup banyak faktor yang menunjang Indonesia untuk menghadapi gejolak eksternal. Modalnya para petinggi kompak, tidak cakar-cakaran.

About faisal basri

Faisal Basri is currently senior lecturer at the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia and Chief of Advisory Board of Indonesia Research & Strategic Analysis (IRSA). His area of expertise and discipline covers Economics, Political Economy, and Economic Development. His prior engagement includes Economic Adviser to the President of Republic of Indonesia on economic affairs (2000); Head of the Department of Economics and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (1995-98); and Director of Institute for Economic and Social Research at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (1993-1995), the Commissioner of the Supervisory Commission for Business Competition (2000-2006); Rector, Perbanas Business School (1999-2003). He was the founder of the National Mandate Party where he was served in the Party as the first Secretary General and then the Deputy Chairman responsible for research and development. He quit the Party in January 2001. He has actively been involved in several NGOs, among others is The Indonesian Movement. Faisal Basri was educated at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Indonesia where he received his BA in 1985 and graduated with an MA in economics from Vanderbilt University, USA, in 1988.
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2 Responses to The Capital-Freeze Index: Mengukur Kerentanan Indonesia

  1. Herry Sinamarata says:

    Halo bang Faisal Basri, saya mau tanya ya…
    Seberapa besar kemungkinan nilai Rupiah kita terpuruk ke tingkat Rp 15.000 per Dolar AS? Apa yang terjadi dengan ekonomi Indonesia jika Rupiah sudah Rp 15.000 per Dolar AS?
    Terima kasih

    • faisal basri says:

      Hallo Bung Herry

      Mungkin saja rupiah menembus Rp 15.000 per satu dollar AS. Kalau saya lihat factor-factor yang menentukan nilai tukar rupiah, agaknya kemungkinannya relatif kecil.

      Rupiah sudah melemah sejak 3 Agustus 2011. Prosesnya sangat gradual, tidak mendadak seperti krisis 1998. Dunia usaha tentunya sudah mengantisipasi depresiasi ini.

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