Demokrasi dan Pembangunan Ekonomi

Catatan:

Tulisan ini adalah versi draft yang diserahkan kepada LP3ES yang menerbitkan kumpulan pemikiran berjudul Demokrasi Tanpa Demos yang baru saja terbit.

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DEMOKRASI DAN PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI

Faisal Basri

“… I wish to assert a much more fundamental role for institutions in societies; they are the underlying determinant of the long-run performance of economies.” 

(Douglass C. North, 1990: 107) 

Abstrak

Kaitan antara demokrasi dan ekonomi telah lama menjadi kajian lintas disiplin. Penyempurnaan konsep dan metodologi membuat fenomena ekonomi dan politik kian menyatu sehingga memperkaya pendekatan ekonomi politik. Ketersediaan data yang semakin kaya dan lebih mudah diakses membuat perubahan yang cepat dan kompleks lebih mudah segera dipahami sehingga amat membantu pengambilan keputusan oleh berbagai pelaku. Lebih dari itu bisa membantu perumus kebijakan memilih cara terbaik untuk menyelesaikan masalah-masalah publik lewat proses demokratik. 

Awalnya beberapa kajian menghasilkan kesimpulan bahwa pembangunan ekonomi menjadi prasyarat kemunculan demokrasi. Pembangunan dulu, baru demokrasi menyusul kemudian. Sejumlah studi selanjutnya meragukan kesimpulan itu. Namun, banyak studi terakhir yang meyakinkan bahwa demokrasilah yang berdampak pada ekonomi. Ada sejumlah prakondisi agar demokrasi bisa mendorong pembangunan dan kesejahteraan, terutama di negara-negara yang demokrasinya masih muda atau sedang pada tahapan awal konsolidasi demokrasi.

Pengantar

Berdasarkan Democracy Index 2020 yang diterbitkan oleh The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Indonesia berada di peringkat ke-64 dari 167 negara dengan skor 6,30. EIU mengelompokkan negara-negara ke dalam empat rumpun rezim, yaitu: (1) demokrasi penuh (full democracies) dengan skor di atas 8,0 sebanyak 23 negara; (2) flawed democracies(demokrasi cacat) dengan skor 6,0 sampai 8,0 sebanyak 52 negara; (3) rezim hybrid (hybrid regimes) dengan skor 4,0 sampai 6,0 sebanyak 35 negara; dan (6) Rezim otoriter (authoritarian regimes) dengan skor di bawah 4,0 sebanyak 57 negara.^[1]

Selama kurun waktu 2012-2016, Indonesia memimpin di ASEAN. Setahun kemudian diambil alih oleh Filipina. Sejak 2017, Malaysia bertengger di puncak dengan skornya yang melesat dari 6,43 pada tahun 2015 menjadi 7,19 pada tahun 2020. Sebaliknya, pada periode yang sama skor Indonesia merosot dari 7,03 menjadi 6,30. Kondisi demokrasi di Indonesia mengalami kemunduran dibandingkan dengan yang telah dicapai sepuluh tahun lalu. Kemerosotan paling tajam terjadi pada komponen “budaya politik” dan “kebebasan sipil” sedangkan komponen “proses elektoral dan pluralisme” menunjukkan kecenderungan membaik. Dengan kata lain, Indonesia mengalami kemajuan dalam demokrasi prosedural namun menampakkan kemunduran dalam demokrasi substansial.

Beriringan dengan kemunduran demokrasi substansial, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat, produktivitas —diukur dengan total factor  productivity— melemah bahkan dalam beberapa periode mengalami pertumbuhan negatif, industrialisasi meredup, detak jantung^[2] perekonomian lemah dan tak kunjung menguat untuk sekedar mendekati kondisi sebelum krisis 1998, kemampuan pemerintah menarik pajak terus turun hingga mencapai aras terendah dalam setengah abad. Selama lima tahun terakhir, investasi kian tidak produktif, tercermin dari incremental capital output ratio (ICOR) yang melonjak sekitar 50 persen dibandingkan dengan periode-periode sebelumnya dan terendah di ASEAN.

Hubungan antara Demokrasi dan Pembangunan Ekonomi

Sekilas tampak ada hubungan antara perkembangan demokrasi dan kinerja ekonomi di Indonesia, khususnya pascakrisis ekonomi 1998. Jika ditarik lebih panjang, Indonesia telah kerap berganti-ganti rezim politik. Semua jenis rezim pernah diterapkan. Telah pula mengalami berbagai sistem ekonomi. 

Perekonomian jatuh bangun dan berulang kali mengalami krisis. Tingkat kesejahteraan rakyat tertinggal dibandingkan dengan negara-negara tetangga yang awal pembangunannya hampir bersamaan. Sekalipun penduduk miskin absolut sebelum muncul pandemi COVID-19 berhasil ditekan menjadi hanya 2,9 persen pada tahun 2019^[3] dan di bawah 10 persen berdasarkan garis kemiskinan nasional, mayoritas penduduk masih tergolong rentan sehingga sensitif kembali menjadi miskin jika terjadi gejolak.^[4]

Perlu penelusuran lebih mendalam untuk mengambil kesimpulan ihwal hubungan antara ekonomi dan politik. Telah amat banyak kajian empiris mengenai hubungan antara demokrasi dengan perkembangan ekonomi dalam enam dasawarsa terakhir.

Demokrasi dan pembangunan ekonomi merupakan proses yang dinamis, kompleks dan multidimensi. Sekalipun corak rezim yang menjadi acuan dalam Democracy Index versi EIU hanya empat, namun setiap corak memiliki banyak variasi dan berubah dari waktu ke waktu, mengalami pasang surut dan penyesuaian, bahkan dialami pula oleh negara-negara yang sudah memiliki kelembagaan demokrasi yang kuat dan stabil sekalipun.

Secara umum demokrasi berkorelasi positif dengan pembangunan. Peraga 3 menunjukkan hubungan antara indeks demokrasi dan pendapatan nasional per kapita. Semua negara yang berada jauh dari garis tren di kanan bawah adalah negara kaya minyak (Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Arab Saudi, dan Uni Arab Emirat). Kelima negara itu tergolong paling kaya namun dengan indeks demokrasi relatif rendah dengan skor di bawah 4. Dua negara/teritorial kaya di atasnya adalah Singapura dan Hongkong. Beberapa tahun terakhir Hongkong semakin mengalami represi dari pemerintah otoriter China.

Sebaliknya, negara-negara kaya yang berada di atas garis tren adalah negara-negara Skandinavia (Norwegia, Swedia, dan Denmark) serta Eropa Barat lainnya, Amerika Utara (Amerika Serikat dan Kanada), dan empat negara Asia Pasifik (Jepang, Taiwan, Selandia Baru, dan Australia). Negara-negara ini telah mencapai demokrasi yang matang dan stabil dengan institusi dan budaya demokrasi yang relatif tinggi. Mauritius (MUS) adalah satu-satunya negara di Afrika yang berstatus demokrasi penuh dengan pendapatan per kapita lebih dua kali lipat dari Indonesia. 

Hubungan antara demokrasi dan kemajuan ekonomi sudah lama dan sangat banyak dikaji. Pemantiknya adalah Lipset (1959).^[5] Ilmuwan sosiologi politik dan juga aktivis politik ini memandang pembangunan ekonomi sebagai prasyarat sosial bagi kehadiran demokrasi. Empat indikator utama yang menjadi penopang perkembangan demokrasi adalah kekayaan, derajat industrialisasi, urbanisasi, dan tingkat pendidikan. Teori modernisasi yang ia jadikan pijakan diuji dengan menggunakan gabungan data time series dan cross section. Lipset sampai pada kesimpulan: pembangunan dulu, demokrasi menyusul kemudian. Kesimpulan itu cukup lama menjadi jargon dan pijakan negara-negara maju, khususnya Amerika Serikat, dalam kebijakan luar negerinya terhadap negara berkembang. Bantuan luar negeri mengalir deras untuk memajukan demokrasi lewat pembangunan sosial ekonomi.

Pada masa itu kajian kuantitatif serupa yang mengaitkan variabel politik dan ekonomi masih jarang dilakukan. Salah satunya oleh Adelman dan Morris (1965 dan 1967). Keterbatasan data membuat kajian kuantitatif masih sangat jarang dan metodologi yang digunakan masih relatif sederhana. Jumlah negara yang digunakan sebagai sampel masih terbatas. Periode itu juga ditandai oleh era pembangunan kembali Eropa pasca Perang Dunia II dan banyak negara berkembang baru memperoleh kemerdekaannya. Demokrasi baru mulai tumbuh di tengah pergumulan ideologis pada masa Perang Dingin. Memasuki dasawarsa 1980an barulah bermunculan kajian lebih komprehensif tentang demokrasi dan ekonomi. Teorema Lipset banyak diuji ulang dengan cakupan negara yang lebih banyak dan metode kuantitatif yang lebih kompleks.

Kajian paling komprehensif pertama kali dilakukan oleh Przeworski, et al. yang dimulai pada awal 1990an dan akhirnya bermuara dalam bentuk buku (2000). Mereka mematahkan teorema Lipset. Przeworski et al. menunjukkan bahwa hubungan antara kemajuan suatu negara berdasarkan pendapatan per kapita dan demokrasi tak mengikuti pola linear. Tak ada jaminan rezim demokrasi bakal menghasilkan pendapatan yang lebih tinggi ketimbang rezim otoriter. Jadi, rezim politik tidak berdampak pada pembangunan. Mereka memandang kajian-kajian sebelumnya mengandung masalah metodologis, terutama selection bias.

Dengan menggunakan data PENN World Table, Przeworski, et al. menemukan bahwa rezim demokrasi baru mencapai kestabilan setelah mencapai pendapatan per kapita US$6.055.  Sementara itu, pada rezim otoriter ditemukan pola yang ganjil, yaitu sangat mungkin bertahan di negara dengan tingkat pendapatan per kapita di bawah US$1.000 dan di negara yang relatif sudah kaya dengan pendapatan per kapita di atas US$7.000. Kediktatoran lebih mungkin tumbang di negara dengan tingkat pendapatan per kapita di antara itu (US$1.000 sampai US$7.000).^[6]

Berdasarkan kajian jatuh bangun rezim politik di 135 negara selama kurun waktu 1950-1990, Przeworski, et al (1996: 39) mengidentifikasi enam faktor yang membuat rezim demokrasi bisa bertahan, yaitu: (1) kemajuan demokrasi, (2) kemakmuran, (3) pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan inflasi moderat, (4) ketimpangan menurun, (5) lingkungan internasional yang kondusif, dan (6) penguatan institusi parlemen. 

Studi empiris yang dilakukan Barro (1995, 1997) menyimpulkan dengan lugas bahwa demokratisasi dalam bentuk lebih banyak hak politik tidak berdampak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada waktu hampir bersamaan, kajian lintas negara Gerring et al. (2005) menghasilkan kesimpulan senada, yaitu efek neto dari demokrasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi selama lima dasawarsa terakhir justru secara statistik negatif atau tidak signifikan. 

Persson dan Tabellini (2006) memperbarui kajian empiris Przeworski, et al. dengan sampel 150 negara yang mana 120 negara di antaranya mengalami perubahan rezim selama periode 1960-2000. Sebelum itu, mereka menerbitkan dua buku (2000 dan 2003) yang menjabarkan operasionalisasi konsep ekonomi politik secara rinci dan tajam walaupun belum memperlakukan faktor politik sebagai variabel endogen dalam modelnya. 

Acemoglu memandang institusi politik yang berbeda akan menghasilkan kebijakan yang berbeda, dan ini pada gilirannya membuat hasil ekonomi yang berbeda pula. Pelaku ekonomi (dan politik) perlu memahami tidak hanya implikasi dari perbedaan kebijakan yang berbeda tetapi juga implikasi dari institusi politik yang berbeda. Oleh karena itu, logika ekonomi politik mendorong kita untuk memikirkan institusi politik sebagai variabel endogen (Acemoglu, 2005: 1033).

Uji kausalitas antara demokrasi dengan variabel ekonomi seperti pendapatan per kapita dan pertumbuhan ekonomi turut mempertajam kesimpulan apakah demokrasi memengaruhi pendapatan dan pertumbuhan atau sebaliknya. Segala jurus telah dikeluarkan lewat serangkaian pengujian. Berbagai studi empiris oleh Acemoglu, et al. selama rentang  waktu 2008-2019 membuktikan bahwa demokrasilah yang memengaruhi pertumbuhan dan oleh karena itu memacu tingkat kesejahteraan umum. 

Acemoglu dengan tiga rekannya dari universitas yang berbeda (2019) menggunakan data panel 175 negara untuk periode observasi yang lebih panjang (1960-2010). Kesimpulan dari kajian ini ialah demokrasi meningkatkan PDB per kapita sekitar 20 persen dalam jangka panjang. 

Institusi politik sangat penting untuk konsolidasi demokrasi, terutama pembatasan kekuatan eksekutif. Kekuatan ekonomi dan politik yang semakin tersebar menjadi kunci keberhasilan demokrasi muda yang belum mencapai lima tahun (Kapstein & Converse, 2008).

 Demokrasi menjanjikan perekonomian yang lebih stabil dan menjauhkan suatu negara dari kemerosotan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tajam. Kelembagaan demokrasi yang kokoh memungkinkan proses koreksi yang lebih cepat karena melekat dalam sistem checks and balances. Pemerintahan demokratis dapat memfasilitasi lebih baik reformasi ekonomi yang berdampak luas, bukan sebaliknya menjadi ancaman.

Berdasarkan temuan dari sedemikian banyak kajian, agaknya tak berlebihan untuk sampai pada kesimpulan Sementara bahwa demokrasi dan ekonomi saling memengaruhi: demokrasi berdampak positif terhadap kemajuan ekonomi; selanjutnya kemajuan ekonomi akan memperkokoh demokrasi. Prakondisi untuk sampai pada tingkat kematangan demokrasi dan ekonomi harus terus diperkokoh, terutama penguatan kelembagaan politik dan ekonomi serta pendekatan pembangunan inklusif.

Pelajaran Bagi Indonesia 

Studi tentang demokrasi dan ekonomi semakin kaya dipacu oleh kolaborasi di antara peneliti dengan latar belakang keilmuan yang beragam. Batas antara ekonomi dan politik semakin kabur. Metodologi dan instrumen pengujian yang kian disempurnakan membuat pendekatan ekonomi politik bisa menjembatani disiplin ilmu politik dan ekonomi. Sudah saatnya perguruan tinggi di Indonesia menghilangkan sekat-sekat fakultas dan program studi untuk menyuburkan kajian ilmiah transdisiplin serta mendorong para dosen dan mahasiswa melakukan kolaborasi baik dalam perkuliahan maupun riset.

Demokrasi bukanlah sistem yang sempurna dan sekali jadi, bahkan bisa meredup. Namun, sistem-sistem lain lebih banyak kelemahan dan risikonya. Demokrasi harus dirawat dan terus diperbarui agar mendekati tujuan hakikinya, yaitu menjaga kebebasan sebagai karunia paling berharga dari Sang Pencipta. Pembangunan yang semakin membatasi kebebasan berpotensi menimbulkan ancaman sosial dan keberlanjutan pembangunan jangka panjang. 

Jangan sampai terulang kembali pengalaman pahit berkali-kali terperosok ke jurang krisis dalam karena kekuatan eksekutif yang eksesif dan parlemen tak menjalankan fungsi hakikinya. Kian banyak pertanda Indonesia bergeser ke arah despotic leviathan. Lebih parah lagi jika kekuatan negara bersekutu dengan kekuatan bisnis.^[7] Penguasaan media oleh mereka membuat oligarki semakin mencengkeram.

Lapisan kelas menengah harus dipertebal dan mobilitas sosial tidak boleh dibiarkan seperti kondisi sekarang. Akses terhadap pendidikan dan kesehatan yang layak tak bisa ditawar-tawar lagi. Itulah modal utama untuk mewujudkan pembangunan inklusif. Jika mobilitas sosial mandek, penguasaan aset makin terkonsentrasi, sehingga pada akhirnya mengancam demokrasi. 

Pekerjaan rumah terbesar boleh jadi adalah bagaimana melakukan transformasi dari extractive political and economic institutions menuju inclusive political and economic institutions (Acemoglu & Robinson, 2013). Dominasi praktik tak sehat berupa value extraction yang lebih mengandalkan otot dan keringat (perspiration) yang dinikmati ^[8]segelintir orang atau kelompok sudah saatnya dilucuti; seraya menyuburkan praktik value creation (otak) yang merajut segala potensi bangsa untuk menghasilkan karya atau produk bernilai tambah tinggi dan berdaya saing.

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^[1] Indonesia berada di rumpun “demokrasi cacat” bersama empat negara ASEAN lainnya (Malaysia, Filipina, Thailand, dan Singapura.  Kamboja, Myanmar, Vietnam, dan Laos masuk dalam rumpun rezim “otoriter.” Brunei Darussalam tidak tercakup dalam survei. Hanya tiga negara Asia dengan status “demokrasi penuh,” yaitu Taiwan, Jepang dan Korea Selatan.

^[2] Sektor perbankan bisa dianalogikan dengan fungsi jantung yang menyedot dan memompakan darah ke sekujur tubuh. Kemampuan sektor perbankan dalam menyalurkan kredit sangat lemah dan belum kunjung pulih dari kondisi sebelum krisis 1998.

^[3] Berdasarkan Poverty headcount ratio versi Bank Dunia dengan pengeluaran per hari $1.90 (2011 PPP) 

^[4] Berdasarkan Poverty headcount ratio versi Bank Dunia dengan pengeluaran per hari $5,5 (2011 PPP), jumlah penduduk miskin dan rentan Indonesia mencapai 52,8 persen. Pada tahun yang sama di Thailand 6,2 persen dan di Malaysia hanya 2,9 persen.

^[5] Seymour M. Lipset, “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy,” American Political Science Review 53, no. 1 (March 1959): 69-105.

^[6] Przeworski, et al (2000): 92-5. Pada tahun 1990 PDB per kapita rill Indonesia berdasarkan US$ tahun 2011 adalah US$4.007. Pada tahun 2019, pendapatan per kapita Indonesia telah mencapai sekitar US$12.000 sehingga bisa menjadi modal untuk terus berada di jalur demokrasi yang lebih stabil. Sejumlah prakondisi perlu dipacu agar kelemahan-kelemahan demokrasi bisa disingkirkan.

^[7] Istilah yang digunakan Acemoglu dan Robinson (2019) untuk negara yang menjauh dari koridor sempit yang disebut shackled leviathan karena power of the state sangat dominan atau eksesif.

^[8] Value extraction dan value creation meminjam istilah Mariana Mazzucato dalam buku terbarunya (2021) Mission Economy: A Moonshot Guide to Changing Capitalism. 

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