By ,Dari berbagai penjelasan pemerintah belakangan ini muncul kesan kuat bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi bakal lebih tinggi pada semester kedua 2015 karena penyerapan anggaran akan lebih tinggi. Proyek-proyek infrastruktur bakal mulai berjalan lancar. Belanja modal bakal terealisasi. Seberapa jauh keyakinan itu memiliki pijakan kuat?
Komponen produk domestik bruto (PDB) berdasarkan pengeluaran terdiri dari (1) pengeluaran konsumsi rumah tangga, (2) pengeluaran konsumsi lembaga non profit rumah tangga (LNPRT), (3) pengeluaran konsumsi pemerintah, (4) pembentukan modal tetap domestik bruto, (5) serta ekspor-impor barang dan jasa.
Komponen (1) dan (2) kita beri simbol Cp; komponen 3 bersimbol Cg; komponen (4) dengan simbol I; dan komponen (5) dengan simbol (X-M). Komposisi atau sumbangan masing-masing komponen terhadap PDB pada tahun 2014 tertera pada tabel di bawah. Sumbangan pengeluaran pemerintah (Cg) hanya 9,54 persen, sangat kecil dibandingkan dengan Cp yang menyumbang 57,25 persen. Sumbangan terbesar kedua adalah I sebesar 32,57 persen. Sedangkan (X-M) mendekati nol atau persisnya -0,76 persen.
Cp adalah belanja pemerintah yang habis dipakai pada tahun berjalan atau disebut juga current expenditure atau disebut juga belanja rutin. Kalaupun pemerintah menggenjot belanja rutin dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan relatif sangat kecil karena porsinya sangat rendah (9,54 persen).
Yang kerap didengungkan akan didorong habis-habisan adalah pembangunan berbagai jenis infrastruktur. Jenis belanja ini masuk dalam pos belanja modal. Di dalam PDB, belanja modal masuk dalam I. Pada tahun 2014, I berdasarkan harga berlaku berjumlah Rp 3.434 triliun. Adapun belanja modal pemerintah yang tertera di APBN 2014 senilai Rp 135 triliun atau hanya 3,9 persen dari I. Kalaupun belanja modal pemerintah dinaikkan dua kali lipat sebagaimana tercantum dalam APBN Perubahan 2015 menjadi Rp 276 triliun, tetap saja porsinya sangat kecil, hanya sekitar 5-6 persen.
Jadi sangat jelas, menggenjot belanja untuk infrastruktur tak banyak membantu untuk mengerek pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Bahkan, sangat mungkin ekspansi anggaran lewat peningkatan belanja pemerintah, termasuk untuk infrastruktur, justru kontraproduktif bagi perekonomian secara keseluruhan. Ini tidak berarti infrastruktur tidak penting. Infrastruktur merupakan tanggung jawab pemerintah dan memang harus digalakkan. Yang dimaksud dengan kontraproduktif di sini adalah dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan jangka pendek.
Mari kita urai satu per satu.
Pertama, untuk meningkatkan belanja pemerintah, penerimaan pemerintah harus naik. Penerimaan pemerintah yang terbesar adalah dari pajak. Oleh karena itu penerimaan pajak harus juga digenjot. Peningkatan pajak mengurangi ruang gerak masyarakat berbelanja dan dunia usaha berekspansi.
Kedua, jika peningkatan belanja pemerintah lebih besar dari peningkatan pendapatan pemerintah, maka pemerintah harus berutang lebih banyak. Agar Surat Utang Negara (SUN) laku, suku bunga SUN harus menarik, menyebabkan kenaikan suku bunga di pasar keuangan. Kenaikan suku bunga itu membuat investasi swasta turun. Jadi, peningkatan utang pemerintah menimbulkan efek mendesak (crowding out effect).
Ketiga, dalam kondisi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melemah, pemerintah cenderung membabi-buta mencari sumber penerimaan baru dari pajak maupun bukan pajak. Seperti sudah terjadi sekarang, pemerintah mulai 1 Juli mengenakan pajak laba perusahaan bayar di muka sebesar 1 persen untuk setiap produk minerba yang diekspor. Padahal harga komoditi pertambangan sedang merosot tajam. Perusahaan tambang yang merugi pun terkena ketentuan ini. Walaupun dapat memperoleh pengembalian (restitusi pajak), kewajiban bayar pajak di muka tentu saja menambah beban dan mengganggu arus dana perusahaan. Akibat selanjutnya, produksi turun dan akhirnya penerimaan negara bukan pajak (royalti, bagi hasil, dan lain-lain) juga turun. Ini sekedar satu contoh saja. banyak lagi praktek sejenis itu yang menambah beban perusahaan.
Jadi, kebijakan apa yang lebih ampuh untuk menggenjot pertumbuhan? Seperti terlihat pada tabel di atas, amankanlah Cp dan I. Sirnakah segala kebjakan yang menekan Cp dan I. Ciptakan iklim investasi yang kondusif, misalnya hapuskan pengenaan pajak penghasilan bayar di muka untuk seluruh impor bahan baku dan penolong. Ironisnya, Kementerian Keuangan baru-baru ini justru menaikkan pajak jenis ini dari 7,5 persen menjadi 10 persen. Bukannya dihapus, malahan dinaikkan.
faisal basri 
I get pleasure from, result in I found just what I used to be taking a look for. You have ended my four day lengthy hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day. Bye
Definitely, what a splendid blog and illuminating posts, I surely will bookmark your site.All the Best!
We are a group of volunteers and opening a new scheme in our community. Your website offered us with valuable info to work on. You’ve done a formidable job and our entire community will be thankful to you.
Definitely, what a splendid blog and illuminating posts, I surely will bookmark your site.All the Best!
I was recommended this website by my cousin. I’m not sure whether this post is written by him as nobody else know such detailed about my trouble. You are incredible! Thanks!
I just could not go away your site before suggesting that I actually enjoyed the standard info a person supply in your guests? Is going to be back continuously to investigate cross-check new posts
I think this is one of the most important info for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But should remark on few general things, The website style is great, the articles is really excellent : D. Good job, cheers
Undeniably believe that which you said. Your favorite justification appeared to be on the net the easiest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while people consider worries that they just don’t know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people could take a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thanks
Howdy very cool site!! Man .. Excellent .. Wonderful .. I’ll bookmark your web site and take the feeds also¡KI am glad to search out numerous useful info here within the post, we want work out extra strategies on this regard, thanks for sharing. . . . . .
I like what you guys are up also. Such clever work and reporting! Keep up the superb works guys I¡¦ve incorporated you guys to my blogroll. I think it’ll improve the value of my web site 🙂
Nice post. I was checking constantly this blog and I am impressed! Very useful info specifically the last part 🙂 I care for such info a lot. I was looking for this particular info for a long time. Thank you and good luck.
Thank you for all your work on this site. Gloria enjoys carrying out investigation and it’s really easy to understand why. All of us hear all about the lively mode you convey vital things through this website and cause response from others about this point then our own child is without a doubt learning a lot. Enjoy the remaining portion of the new year. You’re the one carrying out a powerful job.
You completed a few nice points there. I did a search on the theme and found nearly all persons will consent with your blog.
Thanks for another informative blog. The place else could I get that kind of information written in such a perfect means? I’ve a project that I’m simply now working on, and I’ve been on the glance out for such info.
Hello my friend! I want to say that this article is amazing, nice written and include almost all important infos. I would like to look more posts like this .
I think other site proprietors should take this website as an model, very clean and great user genial style and design, let alone the content. You’re an expert in this topic!
I want to express my appreciation to the writer just for bailing me out of this type of setting. After looking through the world wide web and getting views that were not beneficial, I assumed my entire life was well over. Existing without the presence of solutions to the difficulties you have solved all through your entire write-up is a crucial case, and ones that might have negatively damaged my entire career if I hadn’t come across your blog. Your own personal mastery and kindness in dealing with all areas was tremendous. I don’t know what I would’ve done if I had not discovered such a step like this. I can now look forward to my future. Thanks for your time very much for this reliable and results-oriented help. I will not hesitate to refer your web site to anyone who requires assistance about this issue.
I am just writing to make you be aware of what a superb encounter my friend’s princess found reading your site. She picked up such a lot of details, most notably what it’s like to possess an incredible coaching nature to make other people just grasp chosen specialized matters. You really did more than my expected results. Thanks for delivering those good, safe, edifying and even easy guidance on the topic to Lizeth.
I have to get across my admiration for your generosity supporting persons who really want assistance with the area. Your very own dedication to getting the message all over has been extraordinarily functional and has in every case enabled ladies like me to reach their endeavors. Your new helpful publication signifies a great deal to me and far more to my colleagues. With thanks; from each one of us.
I have been reading out many of your stories and i can state clever stuff. I will definitely bookmark your site.
Normally I do not learn post on blogs, however I wish to say that this write-up very forced me to take a look at and do so! Your writing style has been amazed me. Thanks, quite great article.
Normally I do not learn post on blogs, however I wish to say that this write-up very forced me to take a look at and do so! Your writing style has been amazed me. Thanks, quite great article.