Bangkitkan Ekonomi Tak Bisa dengan Andalkan APBN

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,Dari berbagai penjelasan pemerintah belakangan ini muncul kesan kuat bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi bakal lebih tinggi pada semester kedua 2015 karena penyerapan anggaran akan lebih tinggi. Proyek-proyek infrastruktur bakal mulai berjalan lancar. Belanja modal bakal terealisasi. Seberapa jauh keyakinan itu memiliki pijakan kuat?

Komponen produk domestik bruto (PDB) berdasarkan pengeluaran terdiri dari (1) pengeluaran konsumsi rumah tangga, (2) pengeluaran konsumsi  lembaga non profit rumah tangga (LNPRT), (3) pengeluaran konsumsi pemerintah, (4) pembentukan modal tetap domestik bruto, (5) serta ekspor-impor barang dan jasa.

Komponen (1) dan (2) kita beri simbol Cp; komponen 3 bersimbol Cg; komponen (4) dengan simbol I; dan komponen (5) dengan simbol (X-M). Komposisi atau sumbangan masing-masing komponen terhadap PDB pada tahun 2014 tertera pada tabel di bawah. Sumbangan pengeluaran pemerintah (Cg) hanya 9,54 persen, sangat kecil dibandingkan dengan Cp yang menyumbang 57,25 persen. Sumbangan terbesar kedua adalah I sebesar 32,57 persen. Sedangkan (X-M) mendekati nol atau persisnya -0,76 persen.

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Cp adalah belanja pemerintah yang habis dipakai pada tahun berjalan atau disebut juga current expenditure atau disebut juga belanja rutin. Kalaupun pemerintah menggenjot belanja rutin dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan relatif sangat kecil karena porsinya sangat rendah (9,54 persen).

Yang kerap didengungkan akan didorong habis-habisan adalah pembangunan berbagai jenis infrastruktur. Jenis belanja ini masuk dalam pos belanja modal. Di dalam PDB, belanja modal masuk dalam I. Pada tahun 2014, I berdasarkan harga berlaku berjumlah Rp 3.434 triliun. Adapun belanja modal pemerintah yang tertera di APBN 2014 senilai Rp 135 triliun atau hanya 3,9 persen dari I. Kalaupun belanja modal pemerintah dinaikkan dua kali lipat sebagaimana tercantum dalam APBN Perubahan 2015 menjadi Rp 276 triliun, tetap saja porsinya sangat kecil, hanya sekitar 5-6 persen.

Jadi sangat jelas, menggenjot belanja untuk infrastruktur tak banyak membantu untuk mengerek pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Bahkan, sangat mungkin ekspansi anggaran lewat peningkatan belanja pemerintah, termasuk untuk infrastruktur, justru kontraproduktif bagi perekonomian secara keseluruhan. Ini tidak berarti infrastruktur tidak penting. Infrastruktur merupakan tanggung jawab pemerintah dan memang harus digalakkan. Yang dimaksud dengan kontraproduktif di sini adalah dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan jangka pendek.

Mari kita urai satu per satu.

Pertama, untuk meningkatkan belanja pemerintah, penerimaan pemerintah harus naik. Penerimaan pemerintah yang terbesar adalah dari pajak. Oleh karena itu penerimaan pajak harus juga digenjot. Peningkatan pajak mengurangi ruang gerak masyarakat berbelanja dan dunia usaha berekspansi.

Kedua, jika peningkatan belanja pemerintah lebih besar dari peningkatan pendapatan pemerintah, maka pemerintah harus berutang lebih banyak. Agar Surat Utang Negara (SUN) laku, suku bunga SUN harus menarik, menyebabkan kenaikan suku bunga di pasar keuangan. Kenaikan suku bunga itu membuat investasi swasta turun. Jadi, peningkatan utang pemerintah menimbulkan efek mendesak (crowding out effect).

Ketiga, dalam kondisi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melemah, pemerintah cenderung membabi-buta mencari sumber penerimaan baru dari pajak maupun bukan pajak. Seperti sudah terjadi sekarang, pemerintah mulai 1 Juli mengenakan pajak laba perusahaan bayar di muka sebesar 1 persen untuk setiap produk minerba yang diekspor. Padahal harga komoditi pertambangan sedang merosot tajam. Perusahaan tambang yang merugi pun terkena ketentuan ini. Walaupun dapat memperoleh pengembalian (restitusi pajak), kewajiban bayar pajak di muka tentu saja menambah beban dan mengganggu arus dana perusahaan. Akibat selanjutnya, produksi turun dan akhirnya penerimaan negara bukan pajak (royalti, bagi hasil, dan lain-lain) juga turun. Ini sekedar satu contoh saja. banyak lagi praktek sejenis itu yang menambah beban perusahaan.

Jadi, kebijakan apa yang lebih ampuh untuk menggenjot pertumbuhan? Seperti terlihat pada tabel di atas, amankanlah Cp dan I. Sirnakah segala kebjakan yang menekan Cp dan I. Ciptakan iklim investasi yang kondusif, misalnya hapuskan pengenaan pajak penghasilan bayar di muka untuk seluruh impor bahan baku dan penolong. Ironisnya, Kementerian Keuangan baru-baru ini justru menaikkan pajak jenis ini dari 7,5 persen menjadi 10 persen. Bukannya dihapus, malahan dinaikkan.

22 comments on “Bangkitkan Ekonomi Tak Bisa dengan Andalkan APBN”

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