Perekonomian Indonesia Paling Stabil di Dunia



compcoinc.com

Pada minggu kedua bulan ini, banyak media cetak dan online memberitakan Indonesia naik kelas dari negara berpendapatan menengah-bawah menjadi negara berpendapatan menengah-atas. Ternyata pemberitaan itu salah. Kesalahannya bisa dilihat di sini. Kesalahan berjamaah harus menjadi pembelajaran berharga. Wartawan jangan mengandalkan sepenuhnya kepada sumber berita atau narasumber. Jangan menganut jurnalisme kata si anu. Terapkanlah jurnalisme berbasis data dan gunakan dengan cermat.

Kita harus menunggu beberapa tahun lagi untuk naik kelas. Jika tidak ada aral melintang, status sebagai negara berpendapatan menengah bisa kita gapai pada 2020.

Tak mengapa. Masih banyak yang patut disyukuri. Salah satunya adalah tulisan Dan Kopf berjudul “Indonesia has the least volatile economy of the 21st century,” yang tayang di Quartz, bisa diakses di qz.com.

Pada alinea pembuka, Kopf menulis: “A good proxy for the overall stability of a country is the consistency of its economic growth. It captures various factors that may lead to upheaval like war, financial crises, and political uncertainty.”

Dengan menggunakan data Bank Dunia 2001-2017, Kopf mengukur volatilitas pertumbuhan ekonomi hampir semua negara dengan menghitung deviasi standar (standard deviation) dari pertumbuhan tahunan produk domestik bruto riil per kapita.

Indonesia dengan deviasi standar sebesar 0,7 persen merupakan perekonomiannya paling stabil. Negara paling tidak stabil adalah Libia dengan deviasi standar 33,8 persen.

Lalu, variabel volatilitas saya sandingkan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi (PDB) untuk kurun waktu yang sama. Negara yang saya masukkan dalam perhitungan adalah semua anggota ASEAN, semua anggota BRICS, sejumlah negara Emerging Markets yang tak tercakup dalam ASEAN dan BRICS, dan beberapa negara yang tergolong paling stabil yang bukan ketiganya (Australia, Tanzania, dan Bangladesh).

Rerata pertumbuhan semua negara terpilih adalah 5,1 persen dan rerata deviasi standar adalah 2,3 persen.

Indonesia berada di kuadran kanan-bawah, berarti dengan pertumbuhan di atas rerata dan deviasi standar jauh di bawah rerata (sangat stabil dan kenyataannya paling stabil).

Mengingat perdapatan per kapita kita masih relatif rendah, maka tantangan ke depan, siapa pun yang terpilih sebagai presiden, adalah mengakselerasikan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan tetap menjaga volatilitas. Tentu dengan pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi akan meningkatkan volatilitas, namun kita harapkan dalam rentang yang tidak lebar (akselerasi pertumbuhan yang berkelanjutan), sehingga posisi Indonesia bergeser ke kanan dengan kemiringan yang relatif landai. Semoga pola seperti itu beriringan dengan prinsip-prinsip pembangunan inklusif (berkeadilan).

7 respons untuk ‘Perekonomian Indonesia Paling Stabil di Dunia

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  1. Terimakasih atas informasi yg mencerahkan pak @Faisal Basri, ini semua karena Presiden kita yg tidak rakus dgn misi melayani rakyat bersama para pembantunya @ibu Sri Mulyani dan seluruh jajarannya.

  2. Yg jadi masalah itu adalah,

    1. What is our growth engine? e.g high tech or food producers etc. What do we want the world see us?
    2. Who will find the Growth engine? Government, public or others? Are we the tailor or our we the entrepreneur?
    3. Who will do it? Are our people good enough?
    4. how big the market is,
    5. how to finance the growth,
    6. how sustain is this engine growth,
    7. who are the competitors, and
    8. what is our competitive advantage that separate Us from others?

    Makanya saya setuju GBHN di hidupkan lagi.

  3. Bacaan menarik ttg pariwisata India kenapa tertinggal di bandingkan Cina. Semoga ini bisa jadi bahan pencerahan…

    “China’s tourism is much ahead of India. Here’s why
    SUCHAYAN MANDALAUG 17, 2017, 02.58 PM
    2016 was much of euphoria for tourism industry. The tourism ministry got 70 % hike in the budget with an allocation of Rs 1,590 crore, to focus on infrastructure development and promotion and publicity initiatives. But in a knee jerk reaction to Modi’s demonetization move in November last year, the industry has been left with no choice but to make losses.

    In the last few years, the tourism in India has witnessed a major boom. In comparison to inbound travel, India has seen a major growth in the outbound sector, thanks to the disposable income of the millenials.

    Here are a few reasons, why India’s tourism hasn’t achieved much in comparison to China.

    Infrastructure
    While domestic travellers have quadrupled, Indian tourism didn’t see much development in its infrastructure. While roads may have become better, and a lot of online travel portals have born, what went missing is a massive blue print of infrastructure to take India’s tourism to a new high. In India there has hardly been any addition to new hotels.

    Compare this to China and you would be surprised to find Beijing has as many star-category hotel rooms as all of India. India till 2015 has just a little over 100,000 star rated hotel rooms, compared to Beijing’s 130,000 alone.

    Also lack of supply of hotel rooms has aggravated the demand thereby making the travel in India far expensive in India. The rooms that cost $400 a night in Delhi or Mumbai would cost hardly $100 dollars in most part of China.

    Market size
    Another primary reason for China’s growth in tourism market is its size. China is far larger than our country, packed with tonnes of tourist attractions. Also many foreign visitors coming to India prefer cultural and natural destinations and tend to stay away from the cities. However in China, cities are also major draws.

    Expenses
    Tax disparity in independent travel purchase is a major flaw in Indian travel ecosystem. There are just too many taxes, which makes travel expensive.

    Communication
    The quality of transportation infrastructure in China is light-years ahead of India, there’s simply no comparison, according to a Quora post. It is far easier and more comfortable for tourists to get around China than it is for them to get around India. China’s air, rail, and road networks are all faster, safer, and more modern than India’s.

    Safety and security
    India has witnessed countless instances of pickpockets, burglary, sexual assaults and scams against foreign tourists. There are tourist traps as well that make the country unsafe for travellers.
    Visits to India by female tourists dropped 35 percent in 2015 compared with the same period a year ago, according to the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India.

    There is very little for travellers to worry about in China. Violent crime and rape are almost unheard of. You can walk down dark city streets at night in China and have nothing to worry about.

    Here are the suggestions of industry experts to make tourism in India at par with China:

    Sharat Dhall, COO (B2C), Yatra.com, an online travel agency and a travel search engine:

    “The Indian tourism industry is growing at a rapid pace, fuelled by a growing domestic middle class with increasing disposable incomes. In addition, the inbound market is growing at a steady pace as well. However, in comparison to other comparable countries, India still has a long way to go in terms of fulfilling its potential as a tourism destination.

    The Government has rightly identified Tourism as a pillar of growth in the economy and with improved road infrastructure, regional air connectivity and better budget accommodation, we expect that we will unlock this sector and improve our share of the global tourism market. The Chinese tourism industry & OTAs have benefited from country’s economic development and we believe that India’s tourism sector and online travel market is poised for continued growth and value creation as the economy grows, following the well-established path seen in the US and China.”

    Amitabh Misra, Founder of GoFro.com, an online travel marketplace for leisure travel:

    If we compare the global travel scenario, almost 30-40% population in US and Europe go for leisure travel every year, where as in China the number is around 8% and in India it’s still less than 1% of the total population, making it a market with huge growth potential.

    Having said that one of the major concern is increase in tax disparity in independent travel purchase viz-a-viz holiday packages; for example, the consumer has to pay the tax on flight tickets, now if its combined with a holiday package, they will also have to pay tax on the overall package as well, thus travel is getting costlier for the consumer. We are expecting the 2017 budget to adopt a lenient tax structure which further promote the tourism industry. With government working towards improving country’s infrastructure and enabling tech support at various section will also lead to faster growth of inbound tourism.

    Ritesh Agarwal, Founder & CEO, OYO Rooms :
    Infrastructure development is a pre-requisite to provide the much-needed impetus for the industry’s growth. Additional incentives should be provided for infrastructure investments in the travel and tourism sector to accelerate growth. A lower tax rate for hospitality business and the lower rate of interest for real-estate development will ensure opening up of more supply for the nascent branded budget hospitality sector. This will be in line with supporting small owner-friendly policies, such as the exemption of service tax in the sub-Rs. 1000 hotel room category.”

    Source:

    https://www.businessinsider.in/chinas-tourism-is-much-ahead-of-india-hereswhy/articleshow/60101574.cms

  4. Selayang pandang pendapatan Cina dari turisme

    “2018 China Tourism Facts & Figures
    Predicted 2018 China Tourism Statistics
    Expected goal in 2018 Increasing Rate over 2017
    Inbound Tourism 142 million trips 1.4%
    Inbound tourism revenue UD 127.3 billion 2.5%
    Outbound tourism 134 million trips 4.5%
    Domestic tourism 5.5 billion trips 10.8%
    Domestic tourism revenue CNY 5.05 trillion 13%
    Total Revenue CNY 5.98 trillion 13%

    China Tourism Statistics in the First Half of 2018
    In the first half of this year, China domestic tourism reached 2.826 billion trips and USD 245 billion, up 11.4% and 12.5% respectively over 2016; inbound tourism has 69.23 million trips, which is flat with the same period of last year. Besides, the number of outbound tourism has reached 71.31 million trips, up 15% over 2017, while earlier information released by the National Immigration Administration showed that in the first half of 2018, residents from mainland China applied for 164.16 million passports for private purposes, with growth by 21% over the previous year.

    China Tourism Statistics during Spring Festival in 2018
    During the Chinese New Year in 2018, Anti-season travel is a popular theme for outbound tourism, and the preferred destinations for Chinese tourists remain mainly in warm Southeast Asia. Vacations on islands become more and more popular among Chinese tourists, especially family groups.
    More and more Chinese tourists prefer to piece together the holiday, weekend and annual leave to make the short holiday a long one. The average days spent overseas during 2018 Spring Festival is 8.5, with 57% of Chinese tourists choosing 6-9 days. Among them, Chinese visitors to some closer destinations such as Japan and Thailand spent an average of 7.8 days. For Chinese tourists who choose destinations such as Australia, Europe and the United States, the number of days spent on the trip is relatively long, averaging 12.6 days. Spring Festival travel is also the best time to reward parents and children.

    Top 10 Outbound Travel Destinations during 2018 Chinese New Year
    Destinations Taken up (%)
    1. Thailand 23
    2. Japan 11
    3. Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan 13
    4. Singapore 10
    5. Vietnam 7
    6. Europe 6
    7. Malaysia 5
    8. Australia 4
    9. America 3
    10. South Korea 2

    Top 5 Island Destinations
    1. Bali, Indonesia
    2. Phuket, Tailand
    3. Nha Trang, Vietnam
    4. Boracay Island, Philippines
    5. Sabah, Malaysia

    Travel Partners during 2018 Chinese New Year Trips
    Partners Rate (%)
    Children 34
    Wife/ Husband or Lover 23
    Colleagues or friends 18
    Parents 15
    Travel alone 10

    China tourism statistics during Dragon Boat Festival in 2018
    According to Ministry of Culture and Tourism of People’s Republic of China, a total of 89.1 million trips are made in three-day Dragon Boat Festival of 2018, up 7.9% year on year. The domestic tourism revenue reaches CNY36.2 billion, a rise of 7.3% over the same period of last year. Family travel is still the main force of a short-distance trip.

    During the Dragon Boat Festival, some theme parks and scenic spots known as summer resorts are most popular with tourists. The cities along One Belt And One Road become hot destinations for domestic travel in the Dragon Boat Festival this year. In addition, Japan, Thailand and some leisure islands are the most popular overseas destinations”.

    Source:https://www.travelchinaguide.com/tourism/2018statistics/

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