Cadangan Devisa Melorot, Rupiah Semakin Lunglai

Cadangan devisa Indonesia per 31 Juli turun lagi sebanyak 5,4 miliar dollar AS dibandingkan posisi akhir Juni. Selama 3 bulan terakhir cadangan devisa sudah tergerus sebanyak 14,6 miliar dollar AS. Kemerosotan lebih tajam jika dibandingkan posisi akhir tahun lalu, yaitu sebesar 20 miliar dollar AS. Lebih tajam lagi jika dibandingkan dengan posisi tertinggi akhir Agustus 2011, yaitu terkuras sebesar 32 miliar dollar AS.

reserves

Karena kecenderungan penurunan cadangan devisa sudah cukup lama, maka hampir bisa dipastikan faktor-faktor penyebabnya semakin bersifat struktural.

Pertama, yang sudah sangat bersifat struktural adalah defisit jasa  faktor (terutama repatriasi laba perusahaan asing yang beroperasi di Indonesia) maupun non-faktor (terutama jasa transportasi).

Kedua, defisit perdagangan migas, terutama defisit BBM akibat impor BBM yang terus menggelembung. Dilihat dari perdagangan bilateral, sumber defisit terbesar adalah dengan China.

Ketiga, peningkatan pembayaran utang swasta. Jika perusahaan-perusahaan swasta berutang ke luar negeri sedangkan sumber pedapatannya rupiah, maka tekanan utang swasta bakal semakin besar.

Tak pelak lagi, nilai rupiah pun terus merosot. Kemerosotan rupiah sudah berlangsung lama, terlama sejak krisis. Hari ini rupiah bertengger di aras Rp 10.297 per dollar AS

rp

About faisal basri

Faisal Basri is currently senior lecturer at the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia and Chief of Advisory Board of Indonesia Research & Strategic Analysis (IRSA). His area of expertise and discipline covers Economics, Political Economy, and Economic Development. His prior engagement includes Economic Adviser to the President of Republic of Indonesia on economic affairs (2000); Head of the Department of Economics and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (1995-98); and Director of Institute for Economic and Social Research at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (1993-1995), the Commissioner of the Supervisory Commission for Business Competition (2000-2006); Rector, Perbanas Business School (1999-2003). He was the founder of the National Mandate Party where he was served in the Party as the first Secretary General and then the Deputy Chairman responsible for research and development. He quit the Party in January 2001. He has actively been involved in several NGOs, among others is The Indonesian Movement. Faisal Basri was educated at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Indonesia where he received his BA in 1985 and graduated with an MA in economics from Vanderbilt University, USA, in 1988.
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