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Kecenderungan Baru Dunia: Suku Bunga Negatif


Bank sentral Jepang, Bank of Japan (BOJ), Jumat minggu lalu (29/1) menerapkan kebijakan suku bunga negatif terhadap deposit lembaga keuangan yang ditempatkan di BOJ. Langkah terakhir itu diharapkan bisa melemahkan yen, memacu konsumsi, dan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tahun lalu hanya 0,6 persen. Namun, sejak pengumuman yang tak terduga itu, justru nilai tukar yen menguat. Hampir tak ada lagi peluru tersisa untuk menggairahkan perekonomian.

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Jepang mengikuti langkah Bank Sentral Eropa (European Central Bank) yang lebih dulu menerapkan suku bunga negatif. Bank sentral Denmark, Swiss, dan Swedia juga demikian.

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Bagaimana dengan Bank sentral AS (The Fed)? Pada Desember lalu, The Fed akhirnya menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 25 basis point menjadi 0,5 persen. Tersirat dalam pernyataan The Fed akan menaikkan kembali suku bunga secara bertahap.

Awal tahun ini lebih banyak berita kurang menggembirakan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi AS pada triwulan IV-2015 hanya 0,7 persen, turun tajam dibandingkan triwulan III-2015 sebesar 2,0 persen dan triwulan I-2015 sebesar 3,9 persen. The Fed juga khawatir perekonomian dunia yang tertekan bakal berimbas pada perekonomian AS. Mulai nyaring suara-suara AS mengalami ancaman resesi.

Alih-alih akan kembali menaikkan suku bunga, hari-hari belakangan ini muncul wacana suku bunga negatif juga di AS.

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Bagaimana dampak kebijakan suku bunga negatif yang diterapkan sejumlah bank sentral negara maju terhadap Indonesia? Rasanya Bank Indonesia perlu memikirkan ulang langkah-langkahnya selama ini.

 

 

 

faisal basri Lihat Semua

Faisal Basri is currently senior lecturer at the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia and Chief of Advisory Board of Indonesia Research & Strategic Analysis (IRSA). His area of expertise and discipline covers Economics, Political Economy, and Economic Development.

His prior engagement includes Economic Adviser to the President of Republic of Indonesia on economic affairs (2000); Head of the Department of Economics and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (1995-98); and Director of Institute for Economic and Social Research at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (1993-1995), the Commissioner of the Supervisory Commission for Business Competition (2000-2006); Rector, Perbanas Business School (1999-2003).

He was the founder of the National Mandate Party where he was served in the Party as the first Secretary General and then the Deputy Chairman responsible for research and development. He quit the Party in January 2001. He has actively been involved in several NGOs, among others is The Indonesian Movement.

Faisal Basri was educated at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Indonesia where he received his BA in 1985 and graduated with an MA in economics from Vanderbilt University, USA, in 1988.

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