Apakah Target Penerimaan Pajak di RAPBN 2016 Lebih Realistik?


Pemerintah mematok penerimaan perpajakan di RAPBN 2016 sebesar Rp 1.565.8 triliun. Menteri Keuangan memandang target itu lebih realistik karena hanya naik 14,5 persen dari perkiraan realisasi penerimaan pajak 2015. Ia mengatakan penerimaan pajak tahun ini diperkirakan shortfall Rp 120 triliun sehingga hanya mencapai Rp 1.369 triliun (target APBNP 2015 adalah Rp 1.489 trliun).

Mengingat prediksi pemerintah sudah berulang kali dikoreksi ke bawah, tak kecil kemungkinan prediksi terakhir pun meleset. Prediksi Bank Dunia per Juli 2015 relatif jauh lebih rendah, yaitu Rp 1.165 atau shortfall sebesar Rp 324 triliun, yang berarti Rp 204 triliun lebih tinggi ketimbang prediksi shortfall versi pemerintah.

Jika kita menggunakan acuan shortfall versi Bank Dunia, maka target penerimaan pajak  dalam RAPBN 2016 naik sebesar 34,4 persen. Artinya, target peneriman pajak 2016 lebih tinggi ketimbang 2015 sebesar 30 persen. Realistikkah?

Sekali lagi, jika prediksi Bank Dunia yang bakal lebih mendekati kenyataan, target penerimaan pajak 2016 lebih tidak realistik ketimbang target penerimaan pajak 2015 yang sangat tidak realistik itu.

Bagaimana kalau perkiraan Bank Dunia yang lebih mendekati kenyataan ketimbang perkiraan pemerintah? Gampang, toh proses masih panjang. Ada pembahasan hingga diundangan menjadi APBN. Kalau masih meleset juga, masih ada APBNP. Alasan tinggal dicari.

About faisal basri

Faisal Basri is currently senior lecturer at the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia and Chief of Advisory Board of Indonesia Research & Strategic Analysis (IRSA). His area of expertise and discipline covers Economics, Political Economy, and Economic Development. His prior engagement includes Economic Adviser to the President of Republic of Indonesia on economic affairs (2000); Head of the Department of Economics and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (1995-98); and Director of Institute for Economic and Social Research at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (1993-1995), the Commissioner of the Supervisory Commission for Business Competition (2000-2006); Rector, Perbanas Business School (1999-2003). He was the founder of the National Mandate Party where he was served in the Party as the first Secretary General and then the Deputy Chairman responsible for research and development. He quit the Party in January 2001. He has actively been involved in several NGOs, among others is The Indonesian Movement. Faisal Basri was educated at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Indonesia where he received his BA in 1985 and graduated with an MA in economics from Vanderbilt University, USA, in 1988.
This entry was posted in Makroekonomi, Public Policy. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s