Akhirnya menjadi kenyataan bahwa laju kenaikan harga-harga (inflasi) Juli jauh melampaui target pemerintah sebesar 7,2 persen dan perkiraan banyak lembaga riset. Juga jauh melampaui perkiraan Bank Indonesia sebesar 2,87 persen month to month.
Inflasi bulan Juli mencapai 8,6 persen (year on year) dan 3,29 persen (month to month). yang mengenaskan, penyumbang terbesar adalah makanan (50persen) dan transpor, komunikasi dan jasa keuangan (45 persen). BBM dan cabai menjadi penyumbang terbesar.
Peranan volatile foods yang cukup besar terhadap inflasi bulan Juli seharusnya bisa diredam kalau pemerintah lebih sigap mengantisipasi jauh-jauh hari, karena fenomena ini sudah merupakan ritual tahunan.
Melonjaknya inflasi juga merupakan wujud dari penundaan kenaikan harga BBM. Harga-harga sudah naik lebih dulu , lalu harga BBM bersubsidi naik, kemudian harga-harga naik lagi. Momennya menjelang puasa dan lebaran. Maka maksimallah kenaikan harga-harga pada bulan Juli, tertinggi selama hampir lima tahun terakhir.
Maka bersiap-siaplah menghadapi kemungkinan Bank Indonesia kembali menaikkan BI rate sehabis lebaran nanti.
Ongkos penundaan memang sangat mahal. Rakyatlah yang paling merasakan dampaknya.
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Faisal Basri is currently senior lecturer at the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia and Chief of Advisory Board of Indonesia Research & Strategic Analysis (IRSA). His area of expertise and discipline covers Economics, Political Economy, and Economic Development.
His prior engagement includes Economic Adviser to the President of Republic of Indonesia on economic affairs (2000); Head of the Department of Economics and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (1995-98); and Director of Institute for Economic and Social Research at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (1993-1995), the Commissioner of the Supervisory Commission for Business Competition (2000-2006); Rector, Perbanas Business School (1999-2003).
He was the founder of the National Mandate Party where he was served in the Party as the first Secretary General and then the Deputy Chairman responsible for research and development. He quit the Party in January 2001. He has actively been involved in several NGOs, among others is The Indonesian Movement.
Faisal Basri was educated at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Indonesia where he received his BA in 1985 and graduated with an MA in economics from Vanderbilt University, USA, in 1988.
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